Model Output Variables
At CIM-EARTH we are constantly performing new studies to explore new economic and environmental phenomena, new sources of forecast uncertainty, or just running updated versions of the model. There are many different variables that can be explored in the data analysis portal, and new ones will be added with each new study. Here we briefly describe the variables that can be explored with each study. For more details about the studies, see the data-set explanation page.
Variables from the elasticity and share sweeps
We performed 2 major studies with the CIM-EARTH version 0.1 prototype to explore the forecast sensitivity to model parameter uncertainty. In the data analysis portal, you can explore many different variables associated with these studies. We constructed this prototype with regional and sectoral resolution appropriate for a detailed international study of carbon leakage (an undesirable economic effect of unilateral carbon policy in which the increased price of fossil fuels causes energy intensive industries such as cement, steel, aluminum, and chemical production to move offshore to countries without such policies) and its implications for global economic and environmental conditions, so many of the variables that we are measuring are related to this study. It is thus possible to explore the model time series forecast of
- The gross domestic product (GDP) of individual model regions.
- Economy wide CO2 emissions of individual model regions.
- The total revenue of a collection of energy intensive industries—steel and iron, chemicals, precious and non-ferrous metals, and cement—for individual model regions.
- The industrial and consumer demands for electricity.
- The industrial and consumer demands for refined petroleum fuels.
For many of these variables, the user has the choice to output the gross values, the share of the global total, or the per-capita value. For regional populations, we use forecasts provided by the United Nations with a ‘medium fertility’ assumption.